Velveteen Rabbits

This header for this blog post was inspired by Thai's widow, Katherine (by the way, that was also my mother's name), who in an e-mail to me said this:

"I want you to know that you had actually, like the velveteen rabbit in the children's story, become real to me."

This was in response to my e-mail to her where I reminded her that she referred to me as Thai's "imaginary friend." We are all now becoming real to her, just like the beloved rabbit in the story. And just like the rabbit in the story, The Velveteen Rabbit, we are all shedding a tear for Thai now.

Meeting Thai

It was the fall of 2008; I was working out of an office in Somerset, Pennsylvania. It was a great time for me. I was staying in this tiny little town called Mill Run. It was just four miles from a famous Frank Lloyd Wright home called Fallingwater. This project allowed me to explore a large part of the country that I had never been to before.

Anyway, Thai had suggested that we meet for lunch. I didn't want to waste an opportunity so I left in the morning and drove to Hagerstown, Maryland, to meet him at a little hole in the wall (and I do mean hole in the wall) deli. The entrance was down an alleyway and wasn't much to look at inside or out. But Thai had assured me that it came highly recommended by his peers at work.

I showed up about 10:45, and expected to wait the 15 minutes until the agreed upon meeting time of 11:00. Well, 11:00 comes and goes; no Thai. I think Thai calls me around 11:15 and says he just arrived. But he doesn't know where the deli is at. (Wait, you mean you suggest a place and you don't even know where it's at...?) He tells me he is out on the main road, and I walk down the alleyway to the sidewalk. I should interject here that I have some PTSD due to an angry driver trying to run me over with a car. While walking down the alley, someone in a car drove up behind me. In the alley, there was nowhere to run. So I had to face my fear and step to the side as far as possible. I get through it. Heart pounding and panting with fear, but I get through it.

So Thai tells me what he is wearing (and I am looking all over the place as I am in a strange place and not feeling completely safe) and I finally spot him waving at me. I can't remember the explanation exactly as to why he is late. I think it had something to do with his kid being sick, or getting up late, or something.

But anyway, we finally sit down to eat lunch. He isn't scheduled to go to work until 2:00 or something. We talk for 2 full hours about a whole number of subjects. Everything from the debt issues, to my work, to medical issues and everything in between. We part, having talked fully about all of the issues that interested us both. We were going to meet again in Cumberland, where Thai had another hospital he worked at, but by the time Thai got around to working over there, I had already been sent home. You know, I never did get to take that train ride in Cumberland like I had planned.

A Friendship Develops

After that, Thai and I started exchanging e-mails and phone calls regularly. Besides discussing the political and financial issues of the day, we exchange information on a professional level. I would ask him medical questions (often about my own health issues). And he explained medical concepts in a way that would be understood to a ordinary person (like me).

The phone calls became so frequent, that on the day that RKohn announced Thai's death in the comments over at Sudden Debt, I was just about to call Thai and tell him the good news that I had lost 20 pounds in the last 5 weeks. I had also noticed that he had not been posting here at Street Rat (I had just assumed he was busy with work.) I was also going to ask him to explain some other medical issues that another friend's dad had suffered from.

Anyway, I had asked him how to lose weight. "Calories, calories, calories" was his answer. So I have cut my caloric intake to 1000 calories per day and have been walking at least two miles per day in the summer sun (with a sauna suit on). And usually another two miles in the evening (without the sauna suit). But, being next to the lake here, it is hot and muggy in the evening. Just right to cause a lot of sweating. It seems to be working, at least so far. But I still have a long way to go.

The Kübler-Ross Model (the five stages of grief)

I suspect we are all experiencing some -- or all -- stages of the Kübler-Ross stages of grief right now. I know I am.

1. Denial – My initial shock of "No, it can't be true!" This passed quickly as reality set in.

2. Anger – For me, this manifested itself in the form of "How could you deprive me of another (expected) 30 years of intellectual challenges and stimulation?"

3. Bargaining – I didn't really suffer from this stage (yet). As I realize that I am helpless to change anything now.

4. Depression – This is the stage I am most likely in. I already miss Thai and want that expected time back (bargaining?). But I realize there is nothing that I can do but go on. But who will I find that can challenge me like Thai did? An intellectual equal isn't as easy for me as you might think. And in Thai's fractal world, he always had to be the blog hog and make the Pareto half of all of the comments (do the math, if you don't understand, ask about it in the comments and I'll explain).

The Pareto Principle is related to fractals. I think it was one of the subjects that got us talking to begin with.

5. Acceptance – I am sure I will reach this stage eventually. It is just so hard to see it from here.

Thai's death, coming when it did, reminded me of my mother's passing near Memorial Day.

A Song That Keeps Going Through My Head

I think that this song expresses our sentiments pretty well.

But there never seems to be enough time
To do the things you want to do once you find them

Jim Croce: Time in a Bottle


And, a happier song that seems to explain Thai's understanding of fractals:

He was in search of an answer
The nature of what we are
He was trying to do it a new way
He was bright as a star
But nobody understood him
"His numbers are not the way"
He's lost in the deepest enigma
Which no one's unraveled today

But he knew, he knew more than me or you
No one could see his view, Oh where was he going to
And he tried, but before he could tell us he died
When he left us the people cried,
Oh where was he going to?

He had a different idea
A glimpse of the master plan
He could see into the future
A true visionary man
But there's something he never told us
It died when he went away
If only he could have been with us
No telling what he might say

But he knew, he knew more than me or you
No one could see his view
Oh, where was he going to
But he knew, you could tell by the picture he drew
It was totally something new,
Oh where was he going to?

Kansas: Portrait (He Knew)



Goodbye, my friend. I hope that someday all of our questions will get answered. You certainly left us too soon. You will be missed.

In some spiritual way, I hope that we can meet again and finish exploring all those ideas that you have left asked and unanswered.

An Unspeakable Loss

I just found out this morning. I am so sad. I will write a proper salute when out of shock.

Buddy, you will be missed.

Redux redux?

Really, this is awesome.

JS Mills Redux

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/309925/june-01-2010/ayaan-hirsi-ali

*I tried to embed, but it wouldn't take

Sol Invictus

The Invincible Sun. In better moods, this is how I see the human "spirit".

As demonstrated by a former Seattle Times columnist that I always enjoyed

Mercy

Surely we all want to be compassionate cooperators. Yet also pragmatic, system-evaluating thermodynamicists. Is it possible to reconcile?

Observation #1: Giving money to people who don't have enough money seems like a nice thing to do. Assuming that the only problem is the intake of money and once they have it they'll manage it wisely. Perhaps the problem is more extensive (intake and spending) or even the opposite (just spending). In these last two options, giving them money almost seems like a sick joke on them.

Observation #2: Americans don't seem to have a clear vision of what poverty actually is. In other places on the globe people starve to death. That is actual tragedy. It seems Americans have come to define any sort of threat to self-esteem as tragedy. I have heard people with cell phones cooler than mine, in jeans more expensive than my Levis, bitching about the cost of insurance on their cars that are newer than mine. Perhaps they are not aware of the geek option? Perhaps there should be reality TV shows called Real Lives of the Solvent?

Observation #3: We have had this national identity of self-reliance, rugged individualism, and free will. But we gotta be realistic. If someone throws themselves on the mercy of the collective, the collective has the right to set some boundaries. I seem to have some hazy recollection of a proposal to require welfare recipients use birth control; there was backlash that this was infringing on their free will. OH COME ON!! If you someone tells the collective "I can not manage my life right now" then they're lucky if the collective offers to step in and manage it for them. Lucky, I say!! If your decisions thus far have gotten you into this situation, maybe you need a break from making decisions. So yeah, pee in this cup.

Hmmm. I'm not sure if I'm becoming a Libertarian or a Communist....

Still paying for his/our sins...

So Nixon really did get rid of the line item veto...

All I can say is "WHAT A FU"(!)ING !)!0T@#!!!&(!!!"

Nixon permitted the repeal of a functional line item veto used since the time of Thomas Jefferson.

... Of course you could argue (and I would agree) that we voters really did it to ourselves in our overzealous wish to "throw all the bums out". E.g "down with imperial power" and all, etc...

By the way, take a closer look at when US Federal debt really did start to take off in earnest lest you think there might be no correlations:


The first rapid uptick in federal debt started in 1973-74, right when impoundment was eliminated. And while it is true that federal debt briefly dropped (a little) in 1977-78, I think we all see this drop was both small and brief.

OK, my first short health care thoughts

So here is my first line of thinking...

A little background for those with their head in the sand: municipalities nationwide are approaching bankruptcy.

Nuff background.

And while it is true that spending is spending and therefore ANY spending cuts will help a budget crisis, still I chose to believe that high value spending is not at as great a risk as low value spending. This is my first model assumption.

... For all my cynicism, I truly think it is rare to meet someone who is evil. Selfish people are rather common, evil ones are truly rare.

So with my first assumption, we also know firefighters and in particular EMS represent one of the larger budgetary items in any municipality's budget. Indeed in my own county, EMS spending (which is 85% salaries) has increased almost 100% over the last 8 years while staffing has only increased by about a third (you can guess where the money went).

Well what if I told you there was almost zero evidence that paramedics improve outcomes?

In truth I am over stating my case (a little) as there are a few things that paramedics do which have been shown to improve outcomes (but only a few).

Don't believe me?

Think I'm being "sensational"?

Take a look at the keynote address at their own 2010 Gathering of Eagles Conference. Look at the data yourself.

So I ask again (municipalities are in desperate need of cash, they are spending lots of it on EMS, they are getting very little bang for the buck, etc...): "what would you do?"

PS- To top it all off, most administrative energy in EMS (which is actually quite a few resources) are centered around whether people follow process.

Let me repeat this again so it sinks in: follow process on procedures that add little or no value.

I kid you not.

It matters not whether what is done improves outcomes, it only matters whether process was followed.

You can kill the patient as long as you used the correct procedure. ;-)

Indeed, as I think on what has happened in the world of EMS, perhaps the best financial industry analogy I can think of is the synthetic CDOs on CDSs on sub-prime mortgage backed bonds. The underlying bonds themselves may be worthless (like a lot of EMS procedures) but the energy is focused on the overlying structure of process that rests atop the worthless processes and procedures (like a synthetic CDOs made from worthless CDS on top of worthless bonds, etc...).

You can't make this stuff up.

I will start looking at who supplies EMS when I get some free time. ;-)

PPS- For all my views on America's health care bubble, do not misunderstand me either. I truly think most of the men and women in EMS are heroes. I truly think they do want to help people (whatever else may be going on with their unions, pensions, etc...). I simply also think they can't (though sometimes they do) and that their inability to help is no fault of their own. But no matter how much water you put in your gas tank it will not run your car, so too will throwing money at EMS not help the underlying problem it is trying to solve. Good people get caught up in bubbles along with everyone else.

Is it any wonder our economy is a mess?

I'm sure I do not need to remind any of you of what has happened to basic science in the US?

The drop in both % American high school students entering sciences as well as the drop in their absolute numbers is well documented. I just want to add that in 2008, America spent $140 billion in basic science R&D, just under 42% was non-defense.






And I do hope you put $142 billion into perspective, it is estimated that the American diet industry alone is between $40 and $100 billion. Marijuana alone is $120 billion a year market.

Clearly we have priorities we must keep.

... Next time you read about how it was either Clinton or Regan or Bush or Obama who got the country going again with either tax cuts, or universal health care, or it was the bankers, etc... or some other such policy win:



I think this graph makes quite clear that GDP growth has been dropping for quite some time despite fiscal gimmicks.

Bubble bubble toil and trouble...

Blame the heterosexuals...

Moral of the story, it's time to:

A. Change median American sexual mores.

B. Abort female fetuses.

C. Reduce female fertility.

D. License womens' ability to bear children and selectively re-bestow this right amongst them.

Strategic dilemmas

What to do? What to do?

H/T- Tyler Cowen

Another one bites the dust...

And so I'm guessing you all saw this?

PS- I think I have chosen my tools to hedge the coming collapse of the health care bubble: LEAPS and (of course) puts. I have a bunch of work ahead of me back testing certain stock prices and LEAP prices/put prices against major recent medicare votes. I'll let you know.

Why JS Mill Matters

Thanks to Dink for inspiring me to post on my hero John Stewart Mill. I will not attempt a Wiki redux for this great man but simply make a few comments about why his writing matters so much to me and has to many at least in theory.
I actually came across "On Liberty" for the first time when my work as a psychiatrist compelled me to involuntarily detain pts created what we in this business call "cognitive dissonance". (I hated my work) One argument that Mill develops further than any previous philosopher is the harm principle. The harm principle holds that each individual has the right to act as he wants, so long as these actions do not harm others. If the action is self-regarding, that is, if it only directly affects the person undertaking the action, then society has no right to intervene, even if it feels the actor is harming himself. This is an extremely complex idea and I cannot do it justice in this post but after 20 years of watching Govt. make attempts at trying to coerce people into certain behaviors and spending huge sums of money in the attempt, I have come to the conclusion it is a massive failure on almost every conceivable level. i.e. "The Drug War"

As seminal a work and as influential in political philosophy as "On Liberty" has been, Mill's work "A System of Logic" is perhaps equally as impressive. In it he formulated highly influential principles of inductive reasoning which outlined the basic tenant of science: To unify disparate theories to explain the widest possible range of observations with the simplest of explanatory models. The more I study the history of physics the more I find how influential Mills work was to 19th and 20th century scientific philosophy.

"On Liberty" is on my shelf with a few other treasures I consider to be the most critical works I have ever come across. Sadly, I think it's concepts are as alien to most now as the day it was written.

JS Mill

Externality quote of the day...

"I’m no prude but it’s probably not the safest idea in the world to have a mobile strip club distracting drivers."

- B.S. Report